This report uses macro market trends and trends of compute efficiency to predict the ubiquity of spatial computing occurring gradually in the next decade. #### Contents - [[#1. Foundations|1. Foundations]] - [[#1. Foundations#Computational Energy Efficiency (Koomey’s Law)|Computational Energy Efficiency (Koomey’s Law)]] - [[#1. Foundations#Network Latency & Bandwidth (5G → 6G)|Network Latency & Bandwidth (5G → 6G)]] - [[#1. Foundations#Sensor Cost Curves (ToF, Vision, IMU)|Sensor Cost Curves (ToF, Vision, IMU)]] - [[#1. Foundations#Human Perceptual Thresholds|Human Perceptual Thresholds]] - [[#1. Foundations#Economic S-Curves & Adoption|Economic S-Curves & Adoption]] - [[#2. Spatial Computing: Market Outlook|2. Spatial Computing: Market Outlook]] - [[#3. Roadmap: 2025–2035|3. Roadmap: 2025–2035]] - [[#3. Roadmap: 2025–2035#2025–2028|2025–2028]] - [[#3. Roadmap: 2025–2035#2028–2032|2028–2032]] - [[#3. Roadmap: 2025–2035#2032–2035|2032–2035]] - [[#4. Risks & Enablers|4. Risks & Enablers]] - [[#5. Conclusion|5. Conclusion]] - [[#References|References]] ## 1. Foundations ### Computational Energy Efficiency (Koomey’s Law) - Historically, computations per joule doubled every ~1.57 years until ~2000. Since then, improvements have slowed to every 2.6 years[^1]. - **Implication**: Wearables will see ~16× efficiency gains by 2035, enabling smaller, lighter, more persistent spatial computing devices. ### Network Latency & Bandwidth (5G → 6G) - 6G standardization (3GPP Release 21) is on track to complete by mid-2026, with commercial rollouts expected from ~2030[^2][^3]. - **Implication**: Real-time shared spatial experiences and cloud-rendered content become practical with sub-1 ms latency and >1 Tbps throughput. ### Sensor Cost Curves (ToF, Vision, IMU) - The global time-of-flight (ToF) sensor market is projected to grow at ~20% CAGR to reach ~$16B by 2030[^4][^5]. - **Implication**: High-precision spatial mapping will become a default feature in AR glasses and smartphones. ### Human Perceptual Thresholds - For immersion: motion-to-photon latency must be <20 ms, resolution >60 pixels per degree, and FOV >100° for full situational awareness. - Hardware is just beginning to reach these thresholds (e.g., Apple Vision Pro, Meta Quest 3). ### Economic S-Curves & Adoption - Today’s global AR/VR headset installed base is ~25M units. - S-curve theory suggests mass adoption after reaching 15–20% market penetration among prosumers, likely by ~2029–2030. ## 2. Spatial Computing: Market Outlook - **Global Market Size**: - $110B in 2023 → ~$440–470B by 2030 at 20% CAGR[^6][^7]. - **U.S. Segment**: - $36B in 2023 → $117B by 2030[^8]. - **Hardware Trends**: - Vision Pro sold <500k units in year one, reflecting high cost and niche software[^9]. - Meta Quest 3 sales surged, with Reality Labs seeing a 40% YoY revenue boost in 2024[^10]. ## 3. Roadmap: 2025–2035 ### 2025–2028 - **Hardware**: Lighter, longer-lasting headsets (4–6 hrs) like Quest 4 and Vision Pro 2 emerge. - **Ecosystems**: Unity, Unreal, visionOS, and WebXR begin cross-compatibility. - **Networking**: 5G-Advanced offers sub-10 ms latency, enabling edge rendering for thin clients. - **Enterprise Use**: Digital twin tech expands in manufacturing, field service, and training. - **Overall Effect**: Acceleration of Spatial in Enterprise & Prosumer sectors. ### 2028–2032 - **Hardware**: AR glasses under 150g with waveguide optics and 8-hour battery life reach market. - **Cloud AI**: Latency-tolerant offloading of spatial perception to 6G edge compute nodes. - **Market Sector Applications**: - **Healthcare**: AR-guided diagnostics and surgery. - **Retail**: Smart shelves and virtual product overlays. - **Education**: XR classrooms and micro-certifications. - **Market Milestone**: Over 200M spatial devices in use worldwide by 2032. - **Overall Effect**: Complete Consumer Mainstreaming of Spatial. ### 2032–2035 - **Form Factor**: Contact-lens AR displays and direct retinal projection enter prototype stage. - **BCI & Neural Input**: EMG wristbands and EEG headbands enable “intention-driven” interfaces. - **Edge Cloud + 6G**: Ambient computing becomes real as devices fade into always-on assistance. - **Society**: - New digital zoning laws. - Spatial data rights frameworks emerge. - **Economy**: $500–700B industry by 2035; spatial app and asset design becomes a major digital job sector. - **Overall Effect**: Ubiquitous spatial tech augmenting daily life. ## 4. Risks & Enablers This table lists **enablers** and **barriers** to these trends occurring, or being held back over time. | Enabler | Risk / Barrier | | -------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------- | | Koomey’s Law & Efficient Chips | Slower scaling; heat dissipation limits | | 6G Edge Networks | Spectrum policy delays; rural deployment gaps | | AI + Spatial Perception | Deepfakes, surveillance concerns | | Sensor and Component Cost Declines | Supply chain fragility | | Interoperability Standards (e.g. USDZ, glTF) | Platform lock-in | ## 5. Conclusion If the foundational trends in compute efficiency, networking, and spatial perception continue, spatial computing will be as ubiquitous in 2035 as smartphones are today. It will redefine work, play, and learning—augmenting the world itself as the interface. The transition will be gradual, guided by enterprise adoption and catalyzed by form-factor miniaturization, AI, and low-latency infrastructure. ## References [^1]: https://spectrum.ieee.org/koomeys-law [^2]: https://www.3gpp.org/news-events/3gpp-news/2694-r21_first [^3]: https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2023/6g-what-to-expect-and-when [^4]: https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/time-of-flight-sensor-market-A11356 [^5]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/time-of-flight-camera-market-252529375.html [^6]: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/spatial-computing-market-report [^7]: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/spatial-computing-market [^8]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351461/united-states-spatial-computing-market-size/ [^9]: https://www.macrumors.com/2024/02/26/apple-vision-pro-early-sales/ [^10]: https://www.theverge.com/2024/02/meta-quest-3-sales-earnings-reality-labs